This post presents a point of view that I have found tremendously useful when approaching basin evaluation, and evaluating behavior of water resources. In particular, it applies to approaching relatively complex structural basins. Within these types of reservoirs – water is often significantly controlled by structural geology. Geologic structure and its underlying driving tectonics impart a rock “fabric” – or “grain” – that is not a function of sedimentation. This “fabric” is in the form of faulting, jointing, fracturing, and other phenomena, and can facilitate, re-direct, or impede groundwater. Small, let alone large, variations in stratigraphy and sedimentary development can have orders of magnitude influences on storage and transmissivity. As important as these factors are – however it is my experience that they are so often ignored for the sake of modeling and “conservatism” – and/or because of a lack of recognition, appreciation and understanding of these phenomena for whatever reason. Continue reading
Category Archives: Risk Assessment
Project Evaluation III: Risk Premium and Risk Assessment
Project evaluation must consider project risk. Water yields vary with hydrologic and regulatory conditions. Project construction and operations face potential pitfalls. Will a 100-year flood or earthquake impair/destroy facilities? Prices of project outputs and inputs are variable. Will run-up in energy prices or decline in water demands from a weak economy threaten project viability? The list of project risks is long. Continue reading