For the last few winters, forecasters have seen promising El Niño conditions form in the Pacific, only for the conditions to fizzle in 2013 (jokingly referred to as “la nada”) and again in 2014. For this winter, scientists now have no doubt that El Niño conditions will remain in the Pacific – the only questions are when the rains will begin and how severe they will be. According to the latest NOAA readings, current average temperatures in the Southern Pacific (dubbed “Region 3.4”) are 3.0 degrees centigrade above normal, which is higher than the 2.8 degrees above normal that the 1997-98 El Niño pattern saw at its peak during the week of November 26, 1997. The strength of the current El Niño conditions have led some scientists to dub the pattern as “Godzilla,” and some scientists predict that the conditions could bring a wave of very strong storms to the Western United States this winter. Continue reading
Tag Archives: California
California’s Water Conservation Regulations and the Law of Unintended Consequences Part 1—Management Impacts
The California Drought has elicited fascinating reactions. Water was moved by truck—whether to meet basic human health and safety needs in areas where wells ran dry; comfort and aesthetic needs in affluent communities like Montecito; or individual luxury needs, like the case of the celebrity who was fined for illegally transporting water over district boundaries to his estate. “Drought shaming” (use of social media by individuals to identify and reprove water wasters) emerged as a common and acceptable practice. Almonds were vilified. And some individuals even push back and deny that the drought exists.
The Return of Drought in Texas – A Potential Warning for California?
Forecasters now believe that there is a 95% probability of El Niño conditions this winter, and the current strength of the conditions is one of the highest on record. California and other parched areas of the West hope that soaking rains will bring much needed relief to the drought conditions that have persisted for years. But will this potential series of monster storms this winter reverse the years of drought conditions California and much of the West has experienced? Unfortunately, the answer is likely no. Golden Gate Weather Services meteorologist Jan Null estimates that the rainfall deficit from the last four years of drought in California is approximately 68 trillion gallons. Even if we could capture most of the water that falls during the heavy storms, forecasters estimate it would take between 160% and 198% of average rainfall totals just to get us out of drought conditions. However, as the case of Texas shows this year, it takes more than a deluge to reverse the effects of drought over the long-term. Texas received a deluge of rain this spring to reverse a severe four year drought, only to re-enter drought conditions this fall. In this post, I will look at Texas’s and South Carolina’s trip in and out of drought conditions, and the potential lessons we can learn to prepare for the potential extreme rains California could see this winter. Continue reading
The Bureau of Land Management’s California Staff Needs a Legal Education Concerning the Proposed Cadiz Valley Water Conservation, Recovery & Storage Project
On October 2, 2015, the California State Office of the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management (the “BLM”), issued an “administrative determination” letter (the “October 2nd Letter”). In it, the BLM opined that the proposed Cadiz Water Project in San Bernardino County (“Cadiz”) may not locate a water conveyance within a willing railroad’s 200′ wide federally-granted right of way unless the proponents first apply to the BLM for further study and federal permission. In doing so, the BLM mishandled the legal test that applies to the Cadiz project’s proposed use of the railroad right of way.