For the last few winters, forecasters have seen promising El Niño conditions form in the Pacific, only for the conditions to fizzle in 2013 (jokingly referred to as “la nada”) and again in 2014. For this winter, scientists now have no doubt that El Niño conditions will remain in the Pacific – the only questions are when the rains will begin and how severe they will be. According to the latest NOAA readings, current average temperatures in the Southern Pacific (dubbed “Region 3.4”) are 3.0 degrees centigrade above normal, which is higher than the 2.8 degrees above normal that the 1997-98 El Niño pattern saw at its peak during the week of November 26, 1997. The strength of the current El Niño conditions have led some scientists to dub the pattern as “Godzilla,” and some scientists predict that the conditions could bring a wave of very strong storms to the Western United States this winter. Continue reading
Author Archives: Jeff Simonetti
Why Inefficient Markets, Perverse Incentives and Regulatory Hurdles are Causing Deeper Strains on California’s Water System
In the midst of California’s fourth year of drought, cities and water districts are starting to get tougher on both individual water wasters and cities that are not reaching state-mandated water reduction targets. In late October, the East Bay Municipal Utilities District outside of San Francisco released the names and data of the top-100 water wasters in the District. The list includes venture capitalists, business executives and even former and current baseball and basketball stars. The top water waster identified was Chevron executive George Kirkland, who used an average of 12,579 gallons per day. Extrapolating that water usage to a monthly basis (assuming 30 days in a month), Kirkland was on pace to use more than one acre-foot per month, more than an average California household uses in an entire year! Continue reading
The Return of Drought in Texas – A Potential Warning for California?
Forecasters now believe that there is a 95% probability of El Niño conditions this winter, and the current strength of the conditions is one of the highest on record. California and other parched areas of the West hope that soaking rains will bring much needed relief to the drought conditions that have persisted for years. But will this potential series of monster storms this winter reverse the years of drought conditions California and much of the West has experienced? Unfortunately, the answer is likely no. Golden Gate Weather Services meteorologist Jan Null estimates that the rainfall deficit from the last four years of drought in California is approximately 68 trillion gallons. Even if we could capture most of the water that falls during the heavy storms, forecasters estimate it would take between 160% and 198% of average rainfall totals just to get us out of drought conditions. However, as the case of Texas shows this year, it takes more than a deluge to reverse the effects of drought over the long-term. Texas received a deluge of rain this spring to reverse a severe four year drought, only to re-enter drought conditions this fall. In this post, I will look at Texas’s and South Carolina’s trip in and out of drought conditions, and the potential lessons we can learn to prepare for the potential extreme rains California could see this winter. Continue reading
California and Florida: Coasts Apart, but Facing Similar Challenges Related to Drought and Saltwater Intrusion
California and Florida may be on opposite coasts, but they have more similarities than you may expect in relation to water supply challenges. While California and much of the Western Unites States remains in the grip of a long-term drought, the Southeastern United States has quietly and unfortunately also entered into drought. Southern states including Florida, South Carolina, Alabama and Louisiana are experiencing drought conditions, in some cases severe. The most recent US Drought Monitor shows that while drought conditions in the Sunshine State have abated somewhat, approximately 27.1% of Florida is experiencing some level of drought. The drought conditions are at their worst near the population centers of Tallahassee in the north and Miami in the south. Just a month ago, close to 40% of the state was in some form of drought and extreme drought covered parts of Southeastern Florida west of Miami. Continue reading