What happens when the impossible happens? Does prudence dictate that one revisit expectations? The existing drought in California has understandably distracted the water industry. With multi-billion infrastructure investments on the horizon and the foundation of the California economy hanging in the balance, responsible decision-making must reconsider analyses of California’s water supply availability. Continue reading
The California Legislature passed the Safe, Clean and Reliable Drinking Water Supply Act in 2009 to ask voters to approve $11.14 billion in general obligation bonds for projects and programs to improve water supply reliability and ecosystem health in the Delta. The water bond has been removed twice from ballots (2010 and 2012) due to concerns about the bond’s size and project earmarking.
The Legislature is currently considering seven bills that would remove the 2009 Act’s water bond from the November 2014 ballot and offer voters a new water bond. For this to happen, the Legislature must pass and the Governor sign legislation by June 26, 2014.
The water industry is abuzz about the water bond and related legislative activity. Hydrowonk asks the “water crowd” to share their wisdom on the issue. Predictions markets have a track record of accurately prediction future events and thousands have been used in the private and public sector.
Today, we have made public Stratecon Water Policy Marketplace that uses prediction markets to assess the likelihood of future events. We have put up three questions about California’s water bond:
So, have some waterwonk fun, let’s create a crowd and see where our collective wisdom leads. Our marketplace is free.
For more information on prediction markets and the water industry, go to www.waterpolicymarkets.com or read my two posts, Why Prediction Markets for the Water Industry and What Are Prediction Markets and Why Do They Work?
Mother Nature’s generosity to California extended into March where precipitation was about average (which in California seems like a deluge these days). This March precipitation was greater than used in Hydrowonk’s predictions. So, Hydrowonk’s updated prediction for the expected Final SWP Allocation: 23%
Mother Nature was kind to California in February where monthly precipitation exceeded averages for the first month this water year (monthly chart). This higher precipitation increases Hydrowonk’s prediction of the expected final SWP Allocation to 20%. There is a reasonable chance that the final SWP Allocation will be zero.
