Beats me! Let’s see.
California’s Department of Water Resources (“DWR”) argues that BDCP water is a bargain. I do not find the pitch compelling. The cost of water is understated. The BDCP water supply is “non-firm” and not at all comparable to alternatives discussed. What should be done? Use a subscription process and find out if federal and state water contractors are willing to enter into contracts to purchase BDCP water. Continue reading
Nope.
Remarkably, DWR’s operational studies suggest that the BDCP’s water supply benefits are mostly in normal and wet years. Supply reliability means the ability of a water resource to provide water in drought conditions. The BDCP mantra about water supply reliability has stood the concept on its head. The missing link: storage. Without it, the BDCP project looks like a new junior priority water resource for California water users. Continue reading
Nope.
Rising debt burdens in California is a “headwind” for voter-approved water bonds. Given the crowd I roll with, this is conventional wisdom. I find unconvincing Department of Water Resources (“DWR”) discussion of bond funding for the conservation and restoration part of the BDCP. DWR simply believes that California voters pass water bonds by large majorities.
How does one choose between these two world views? Simply look at the very history of California water bonds found in DWR materials!
Based on the history of water bonds, the 2014 water bond has about 7-1 odds against passing. A smaller water bond would do better, but are not close to an even money bet. Time to seek counsel from a former Carmel mayor. Do you feel lucky . . .? Continue reading
This second post in my BDCP series answers the question that eludes readers of the Department of Water Resources (“DWR”) materials and participants at DWR’s July 17th presentation:
What is the cost of water to state and federal water contractors?
As explained below, the answer depends on interest rates and risk assessments. I conclude that a reasonable range for the cost of water for state and federal contractors is substantial and depends on DWR’s Delta outflow scenario: