Last week, I wrote a post about how water politics helped to shape the primary elections in Nebraska. Nebraska, like many areas in the Western and Midwestern United States is facing a prolonged drought. The drought has an effect on everything from fracking policies to the prices that you pay in the grocery store. In today’s world, we are more inter-connected than ever – a change or a hiccup in one region or market can quickly have ripple effects in another area. We have to look no further than the housing crisis that led to the recession in 2008 for an example of this phenomenon. A crash in the US housing market caused much more global pain due to the incredible interconnectivity our modern financial systems have. The water industry and related fields such as agriculture and oil services are no different. Drought in one part of the world (namely the Western United States) can have a dramatic effect on policies and the prices of everything from groceries to oil. In this piece, I will focus on the drought in the Midwestern United States, and why we should care about its effects. Continue reading
The Politics of Nebraska’s Water Future
As the 2014 midterm elections approach, many state and local governments will make key decisions on water policies. In Rod Smith’s last Post, he discussed the issues surrounding the proposed water bond in California. (To make or view predictions on the California Water Bonds, visit the Stratecon Water Policy Marketplace). In other states, water resources issues are playing key roles in the legislative and gubernatorial elections. In this piece, I will focus on how water issues pertaining to both agriculture and fracking are playing into the mid-term elections in Nebraska. Continue reading
Arizona’s Long-Term Water Future
In my last Post, I wrote about how a part of California’s water future is inextricably linked to the health of the Colorado River’s water supply. As I mentioned, the Colorado River currently is enjoying the benefits of a slightly above average snowpack in the mountains that feed the River. Further, the Colorado River has two of the largest reservoirs in the West in Lake Powell and Lake Mead. These two reservoirs help to stabilize the water reserves for the states that rely on the River’s bounty and aid in planning for future drought years. But lately, both scientists and policymakers have grown increasingly concerned that we will not be able to rely on the Colorado to supply as much water in the future. One state that these decreased water supplies could affect critically is Arizona. In this piece, I will discuss the challenges that Arizona faces from dwindling Colorado River supplies, and highlight the steps that the state is taking to address these long-term supply challenges. Continue reading
Discovering the Crowd’s Wisdom About California’s Water Bond
The California Legislature passed the Safe, Clean and Reliable Drinking Water Supply Act in 2009 to ask voters to approve $11.14 billion in general obligation bonds for projects and programs to improve water supply reliability and ecosystem health in the Delta. The water bond has been removed twice from ballots (2010 and 2012) due to concerns about the bond’s size and project earmarking.
The Legislature is currently considering seven bills that would remove the 2009 Act’s water bond from the November 2014 ballot and offer voters a new water bond. For this to happen, the Legislature must pass and the Governor sign legislation by June 26, 2014.
The water industry is abuzz about the water bond and related legislative activity. Hydrowonk asks the “water crowd” to share their wisdom on the issue. Predictions markets have a track record of accurately prediction future events and thousands have been used in the private and public sector.
Today, we have made public Stratecon Water Policy Marketplace that uses prediction markets to assess the likelihood of future events. We have put up three questions about California’s water bond:
- will California voters pass the water bond from the 2009 Act?
- will the California Legislature and Governor act before the June 26, 2014 deadline and replace the existing water bond with a new one?
- what will be the size of the new water bond?
So, have some waterwonk fun, let’s create a crowd and see where our collective wisdom leads. Our marketplace is free.
For more information on prediction markets and the water industry, go to www.waterpolicymarkets.com or read my two posts, Why Prediction Markets for the Water Industry and What Are Prediction Markets and Why Do They Work?